FORECASTING AIR TRAFFIC VOLUMES USING SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES
Keywords:
Air Traffic Volume, Forecasting, Smoothing, Decomposition, Time Series, TurkeyAbstract
For many years, researchers have been using statistical tools to estimate parameters of macroeconomic models. Forecasting plays a major role in logistic planning and it is an essential analytical tool in countries’ air traffic strategies. In recent years, researchers are developing new techniques for estimation. In particular, this research focuses on the application of smoothing techniques and estimation of air traffic volume. In this study four air traffic indicators including total passenger traffic, total cargo traffic, total flight traffic and commercial flight traffic were used for forecasting. Also seasonal effects of these parameters were investigated. As analysis tools, classical time series forecasting methods such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, Brown's single parameter linear exponential smoothing, Brown’s second-order exponential smoothing, Holt's two parameter linear exponential smoothing and decomposition methods applied to air traffic volume data between January 2007 and May 2013. The study focuses mainly on the applicability of Traditional Time Series Analysis (Smoothing & Decomposition Techniques). To facilitate the presentation, an empirical example is developed to forecast Turkey’s four important air traffic parameters. Time Series statistical theory and methods are used to select an adequate technique, based on residual analysis.
Downloads
References
[2] Charles, M.B., Barnes, P., Ryanb, N. and Clayton, J., (2007). Airport futures: Towards a critique of the aerotropolis model, Futures 39, 1009 – 1028
[3] Carson, R.T., Cenesizoglu, T. and Parker, R., (2011).Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel, International Journal of Forecasting 27, 923–941
[4] China,A.T.H., Tay, J.H., (2001). Developments in air transport: implications on investment decisions, profitability and survival of Asian airlines, Journal of Air Transport Management 7, 319–330
[5] Adrangi, B., Chatrath, A. and Raffiee, K., (2001). The demand of US air transport service: a chaos and nonlinearity investigation, Transportation Research, Part E, 37, 337-353
[6] Jonga, G., Gunnc, H. and Akiva, M.B., (2004). A meta-model for passenger and freight transport in Europe Transport Policy 11, 329–344
[7] Matsumoto, H., (2004). International urban systems and air passenger and cargo flows: some calculations, Journal of Air Transport Management 10, 241–249
[8] Lee, H. S., (2009). The networkability of cities in the international air passenger flows 1992–2004. Journal of Transport Geography 17, 166–175
[9] Hui, G W. L., Hui, Y. V. and Zhang, A., (2004). Analyzing China’s air cargo flows and data. Journal of Air Transport Management 10, 125–135
[10] Hwang, C. C., Shiao, G. C., (2011). Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport. Journal of Transport Geography 19, 738–744
[11] Mason, K.J., (2005). Observations of fundamental changes in the demand for aviation services. Journal of Air Transport Management 1, 19–25
[12] Matthiessen, C.W., (2004). International air traffic in the Baltic Sea Area: Hub-gateway status and prospects. Copenhagen in focus. Journal of Transport Geography 12, 197–206
[13] Sengupta, P., Tandale, M., Cheng, V., Menon, P., (2011) .Air Traffic Estimation and Decision Support for Stochastic Flow Management, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference, 8-11 August 2011, Portland, Oregon
[14] Önder, E., Hasgül, O., 2009. Time Series Analysis with Using Box Jenkins Models and Artificial Neural Network for Forecasting Number of Foreign Visitors. Journal of Institute of Business Administration - Yönetim (20), 62, 62-83
[15] Orhunbilge, N., 1999, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Price Index. Istanbul University, School of Business Press, Publication No: 277, 11–130. (In Turkish)
[16] www.dhmi.gov.tr/istatistik.aspx (17.09.2013)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The manuscript with title and authors is being submitted for publication in Journal of Aeronautics and Space Technologies. This article or a major portion of it was not published, not accepted and not submitted for publication elsewhere. If accepted for publication, I hereby grant the unlimited and all copyright privileges to Journal of Aeronautics and Space Technologies.
I declare that I am the responsible writer on behalf of all authors.